The generation that Shinzo Abe left behind
Abe may have left his party a gift that may blossom in the future - an emerging LDP majority that crystallizes the positive elements of Abe's legacy in a not-so-distant future.
Right after Shinzo Abe's death, tens of thousands of Japanese showed up at the crime scene, where Abe was gunned down, and nearby LDP offices, to pay their respects, by praying and dedicating flowers.
However, since then, the public has clarified that the tragic ending of Shizo Abe's life does not exempt him from his divisiveness and the controversy that he left behind. For instance, his contact with the unification church has culminated in a national scandal for the LDP.
That dark aspect is manifested in the divide that is surfacing among the public, regarding the upcoming state funeral. Currently, numbers from various polls indicate that the vast majority of the public is opposed to the government's decision to host the state funeral, scheduled for September 27. Indeed, there are many sources of opposition - lack of legal basis, the perception of the state funeral being an obsolete ritual, Kishida's failure to penetrate the public with a convincing reasoning - but Abe's divisiveness is definitely one of the factors that invoked a backlash from the public.
However, while the bulk of the public is against it, my generation - so-called Generation Z - has been the outlier by being the only one strongly in favor of the state funeral. While the majority of each age group is in opposition, two thirds of the population below those in their 30's - my generation included - back Kishida's plans.
It is ironic that the generation that showed defiance towards Kishi Nobusuke in the midst of the debate over the revision of the US-Japan security agreement in 1960 is showing its deference to Shinzo Abe, Kishi's grandson, more than half a century later. What is also ironic is that while Kishi was accused of norm-busting and being authoritarian, and Abe received the same criticisms, the youth in this era are supportive of that kind of politician regardless.
To be clear, the youth support of Shinzo Abe does not imply that we embraced his cultural conservatism nor his historical revisionism. We supported him because he gave us a sense of security when we needed it the most through measures that aim for a robust economy and bolster the defense of the country. His constant effort to challenge the status quo and to render change to the system - even though his motivation was rooted in the desire to wind Japan back into the great power that it used to be - we perceived his attitude as being future oriented.
However, at the same time it is true that my generation tends to be more forgiving of Abe's flaws compared to other groups. This tendency could be explained through the medium that we rely on for information - that being social media. Research indicates that online messaging conveyed by grassroot conservatives - who adore Abe and spread complimentary remarks about him - seems to resonate more with the users rather than Abe's critics.
Due to the appeal that Abe had with my generation, he has lured us into the LDP block, transforming us into reliable adherents to the party. This is especially needed when they are facing headwinds. Gen Zers remain solidly behind the issue of the state funeral.
In fact, if my generation's support of the LDP - which is almost certainly the result of Abe's policies and posture - continues, and the social media sphere remains a conservative bullhorn, the electoral prospects of the LDP seem to be extremely favorable.
A finding from Nikkei Shimbun, pointed out that if the electorate consisted only of people under 40 years old during the 2021 upper house election, the LDP would have accumulated close to 300 seats in the Diet - more than 30 seats than the actual result. The result shows that the LDP has been successful in penetrating not only my generation but also the relatively younger generation too.
If the current trend continues as my generation ages, the LDP may reinforce its standing in Japanese politics. There may be a time where the LDP becomes even more formidable than it is now. However, whether this scenario for the party is realized or not solely depends on whether the LDP can inherit and carry on the legacy of Abe.
In other words, whether they can sustain their image of being the party of change while adjusting the laws in a way that is responsive to the popular culture, maintaining stability, providing growth to the economy, reconfiguring the endurance of the social safety net, and protecting the nation from malign actors abroad will determine their relationship with my generation, henceforth. Although Abe is out of the game of politics, and his existence as a fixer of the party is no longer a nuisance for Kishida, my generation will judge Kishida based on whether he is able to deliver those expectations.
The politics surrounding the state funeral has again highlighted the divisiveness that is inherent to Abe as a politician. Conversely, the lonely support of my generation has hinted that Abe may have left his party a gift that may blossom in the future - an emerging LDP majority that crystallizes the positive elements of Abe's legacy in a not-so-distant future.